主讲人：黎莉 助理教授

题目：Sovereign Defaults and Interest Rate Spread in the Presence of Self-Control Problems

地点：经济学院106教室

时间：2016年10月20日（周四）下午15：00——16：30

内容：Recurring sovereign defaults in Argentina are characterized by its large sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio and volatile interest rate spread, which are hard to conciliate with conventional endogenous sovereign default models. In parallel to the individual bankruptcy literature, I introduce self-control preferences (Gul and Pesendorfer, 2001,2004,2005) into the model by Arellano (2008). In the resulting model, the decision agent suffers from a lack of self-control which manifests itself as the temptation to consume all wealth for immediate gratification. Foreseeing such recurring temptation, the decision agent would take on a larger debt than normal. In the next period, conditioning on not defaulting, the repayment would reduce available consumption and hence temptation. Taking on a larger debt upfront, however, comes at the cost of having a higher default risk. A calibration shows that a moderate lack of self-control taken from Huang et al. (2015), combined with Argentina's volatile output process, are both essential in explaining the Argentine case. In the presence of the self-control problem, raising consumption tax has neutral welfare effect and can reduce sovereign default risk.

黎莉老师系上海财经大学国际工商管理学院助理教授。黎莉老师获得多伦多大学经济学博士学位，主要研究领域为国际金融，宏观。

经济学院

2016年10月10日